Ukraine

YOU have to own wrong calls. I wrote last week that I didn’t believe Putin would launch a shooting invasion of Ukraine. It wasn’t a guess. I thought about advantages and disadvantages, the probable costs to Russia – the realpolitic, in other words – and concluded Putin’s real objective was twofold: first, to test the extent of the West’s post-Trump strategic disorganisation and feebleness – though both were justifiably taken as read; and second, to incrementally undermine Ukraine from without until its national independence was extinguished. Now, maybe he wasn’t certain a General Patton response wouldn’t come and only made the decision to invade when he saw the yellows of Biden’s eyes. Either way, I underestimated the Russian President’s liquid resolve.

Besides which, how could a man as canny and ruthless as Putin fail to exploit a ‘Leader of the Free World’ who is not just dilapidated but a degenerate? Michael Costa tonight described Joe Biden as the worst American President in history. Count the ways: as Ukrainian mothers wondered if their sons and daughters would survive the week, the US President was thinking of himself. “We need to be honest,” he lied, and accept that the invasion caused Joe-flation. A revanchist pseudo-Czar only gets one Joe Biden in a lifetime and Vladimir Putin has had his. The two men are equals, morally, but Putin has an edge – only measurable by micrometer, granted – for sincerity. I don’t believe the United States can survive as a recognisable iteration of itself if Biden remains in office till January, 2024. Compare this situation to, say, 1982. Had Ronald Reagan become incapacitated in that year, George H.W. Bush was ready to step in.

Greg Sheridan quoted Jim Molan yesterday saying that when the odds are impossible, soldiers still choose to fight and die – and that their sacrifice is purposeful in the longer historical campaign for liberation. As a mediocre Catholic (and that’s flattering myself), I hear John 15:13 in the sentiment but I also know just war doctrine well enough to know that military leaders may not commit troops to battle unless there are “serious prospects of success.” There are no such prospects in Ukraine. I therefore hope some semblance of order can be established there quickly so as to avoid savageries and vendettas. I have no idea how realistic that is. As for my remarks on the moral degradation of the West and the foolishness of NATO, they stand.

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24 Responses to Ukraine

  1. Romanitas says:

    CL,
    It is arguable whether these ‘explosions’ in Ukraine are Russian strikes or just detonations carried out by other parties. Where are the explosions occurring? At airbases or random warehouses? Earlier today I was sent footage of alleged combat in Ukraine which clearly depicted US army troops in a desert environment such as Iraq or Afghanistan, flying US flags and speaking English. No snow, no steppes, no forests. I think we need to be very cautious about any footage which is said to originate from Ukraine. Mind you, the gift of Biden and his administration of totally incompetent woke warriors would be a hard gift to ignore. Putin has been very clear – Ukraine cannot join NATO. NATO has no logistical military capacity or willpower to carry out a military campaign so far from central Europe. I suspect what we are seeing is disinformation and distraction. If anyone has not seen the 1997 movie “Wag the Dog” then please enjoy.

  2. C.L. says:

    Yes, Rom – the fog of war at the moment is off the charts, that’s for sure.

    The Europeans thought it was sustainable to be rich, disarmed, dependent on Russia for energy, dependent on the Anglo-Americans for security, and to then have pretensions to poke the Bear to its East.

    Gray Connolly

    This.

  3. Romanitas says:

    Thanks for that CL,
    It is widely known that the “Color Revolution” in Ukraine in 2014 was illegitimate. And the activities of US agents such as the Vindermans are obvious. Not to mention the known activities of pre-senile Biden and his son since then. When the situation now arises that I am more inclined to believe Russian media reports rather than the ABC or Newscorp – does that mean that the West is finished? Maybe another booster will cure me.
    Somewhat OT, but I recall in my youth in the mid-1970s having to read a ‘young person’ novel, whereby all boys were obliged to take an injection when they displayed excessive evidence of testosterone. After that they were completely docile. The English author was female (I think) but I cannot recall who it was. If anyone can remind me please do so. It reminds me of our current situation.

  4. Not Trampis says:

    There are plenty of journos in the Ukraine. It is very easy therefore to know why every airport has had missiles exploded in them.
    Germany stated very clearly Ukraine would not be part of NATO.
    Every Administration since Georg W has attempted to stop russian gas.
    If you believe Russian media then you are a fool

  5. Cassie of Sydney says:

    Thanks C.L….once again you’ve said it best. May I disagree on one point….

    ” The two men are equals, morally, but Putin has an edge – only measurable by micrometer, granted – for sincerity. “

    I believe the sniffing, rotting corpse currently occupying the WH is worse. Putin doesn’t pretend to be someone he’s not.

  6. Boambee John says:

    Non Mentis

    If you believe Russian media then you are a fool
    A slight modification: If you believe any of the legacy MSM, then you are a fool.

    Every Administration since Georg W has attempted to stop russian gas.

    Except the Hiden Biden administration, which ended US energy independence in Week 1 by Executive Order, and lifted sanctions on the Nordstream 2 pipeline. These actions raised the prices of oil and gas, and provided Putin with the funds needed for a little war.

  7. Not Trampis says:

    Putin kills people who threaten him fool.

    Lifting sanctions but continue to oppose it.
    MSM media usually agree when they do a snafu except for fox of course so again you score an own goal.

    Only an ignorant fool would attempt to compare Russian and US media. The current stoush with Ukraine shows that in spades.

  8. Boambee John says:

    Non Mentis

    MSM media usually agree when they do a snafu

    In your dreams idiot. Clearly you have had nothing to do with the Complaints Department of Their ABC!

    Only an ignorant fool would attempt to compare Russian and US media. The current stoush with Ukraine shows that in spades.

    Only an ignorant fool like you would give any credence to either Russian or US legacy/”mainstream” media, which explains many of your sillier comments.

    Putin kills people who threaten him fool.

    Sssshhhh! If he reads your comment, you will need to watch out for Bulgarians with umbrellas.

    Lifting sanctions but continue to oppose it.

    What does this babble mean? No wonder you had to be expelled from kindy on reaching age 18.

  9. bollux says:

    If you think Johnson is a UK patriot, if you think Scomo puts Australia above all else, if you think Macron is for the free French, if you think Trudeau loves Canada, and if you think Jacinda Adern embraces the rights of New Zealanders, and if you think everything Joe Biden does is to advance the USA, then it is no use telling you that Putin has more patriotism in his little finger than that lot of those miscreants put together. And if you believe the MSM on Ukraine, then you’ve joined the dark side. All the worlds a stage and are you distracted enough yet?

    6

  10. Buccaneer says:

    Bulgarians with umbrellas – love it…
    Putin has completely outmaneuvered Biden. How else to explain Biden warning for weeks that an invasion would come then having nothing to actually announce to even appear like he’s countering it?

    It’s hilarious, because to the casual observer it looked like pure Biden chest beating at the time, but it was all true and instead of him looking competent he looks like an even bigger bum.

    I wonder what might happen if Putin announces that he paid the Biden family to stop Keystone and approve Nordstream.

    I bet he has more than a few cards like that in his back pocket, perhaps the reason slow Joe didn’t know what to say.

  11. Romanitas says:

    Maybe it is just me, but why this century do intrepid amateur camerapersons always start filming missile strikes nowadays before they impact? Do they have an app that tells them that an Evil Russian (or whatever) Missile will impact on a certain location in x number of seconds? Now I read that “dozens” of Ukrainians have been killed by such strikes. The mainstream media is truly amazing and completely to be trusted.

  12. Tel says:

    Well I was not expecting Putin to go this far, but on the other hand the “official” pundits are making outrageous claims that Putin will take Kiev, and that seems extremely unlikely. Generally speaking, this is an exercise in intimidation and border stabilization, and if Putin wanted to destroy Kiev, it would be already done.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/australian-markets/australian-sharemarket-a-bloodbath-as-russia-fears-eventuate/news-story/c189543b04ebd4df62382ec2f2ae9764

    IG market analyst Kyle Rodda said the big issue for markets from a macro standpoint was Russia’s move amounted to another big supply shock, sending commodity prices higher and exacerbating the rising inflation central banks were already struggling to contain.

    “Based on US intelligence and the innuendo in the rhetoric of Putin, a full scale invasion, targeting the capital, is imminent or underway,” he said.

    “This is very significant, because it points to a plan of not a land grab from Russia, but an overthrow of the Ukrainian government.

    “If they make a move on the capital, it indicates a possibly protracted and bloody war which could render Ukraine – in the worst set of outcomes – a failed state.

    This is such a total load of crap … if commodity prices are set to skyrocket then why are so many Australian miners and food producers seeing their share price crash in the past few days? For example, Sandfire Resources down 4% in the last five days, when before that it was heading mostly upwards (with significant volatility). Are we supposed to believe that a war means no one wants Copper anymore? They have operations in Australia, Montanta USA, Spain and Botswana … is Putin poised to invade any of those places?!?

    The people cranking out financial articles make up any old garbage and just keep shovelling it out there, explaining away stuff they know nothing about in ways that make no sense at all.

    And somehow these morons know exactly what Putin is thinking … even before he knows it himself … how about that? Putin ain’t going to take Kiev.

  13. cuckoo says:

    Now I see in the Age headlines that biden has called the invasion ‘a dangerous moment for freedom around the world’. Sorry, I thought “freedom” (in scare quotes) was a white supremacist homophobic anti-vaxxer dog whistle. Must have missed this morning’s Newspeak update.

  14. Gab says:

    “Oppression and wars continue to occupy the minds and hearts of many people. Russia, despite everything, continues to deny my Son. Russia rejects real life and continues to live in darkness. If there is not a return to Christianity in Russia, there will be a Third World War; the whole world will face ruin.”

    https://newpathway.ca/the-holy-mother-has-special-meaning-for-ukrainians/

  15. C.L. says:

    In other market news, Tel, this from Bloomberg:

    In the 24 hours after Putin recognized two breakaway Ukrainian republics, the U.S. and its allies bought $700 million in Russian oil, gas and commodities.
    @JavierBlas says it’ll be business as usual

    The US and the UK have already paid for the whole – um – shooting match.

  16. C.L. says:

    It always worried me that Lenin’s alleged remains weren’t thrown into a river when the USSR fell. They kept it on show like some kind of inspiring relic.

  17. C.L. says:

    Take heart, cuckoo. No.10 Downing has been lit in the colours of the Ukrainian flag.

  18. Lee says:

    I just watched a 20 minute video of Tucker Carlson.
    He showed a clip of some fruit cake who claimed the Ukraine invasion was because of , wait for it! Tucker and the Republican Party!
    Never mind that America has had an old fool of a Democrat with dementia in the White House for the last 13 months.

  19. Chris M says:

    I wrote last week that I didn’t believe Putin would launch a shooting invasion of Ukraine.

    Well it’s too early to tell – Putin stated at the outset his intention was for demilitarisation and regime change, not occupation. We will see if that pans out. Thus far it does appear they are hitting military and strategic targets and generally not civilians ones, intentionally at least. Maybe he will crush and withdraw, like the US has done several times.

    I like your writing CL but must say the Putin Biden comparison above was well below your usual standard. When comparing tyrants remember that

    to date

    Daniel Andrews has killed far more civilians in Victoria than Putin has in Ukraine. Most likely businesses too.

  20. Chris M says:

    Oops italics, not quote!

  21. Rockdoctor says:

    Same CL I thought they would seize the eastern regions and go no further. Well I stand corrected.

    I guess Putin wants regime change and oops haven’t we been it this point before in the middle east. Risking going out on a limb again, the regime change here will be possibly a lot less bloody though.

  22. Entropy says:

    We should all question the role Tony Abbott has played in this.

  23. Entropy says:

    if commodity prices are set to skyrocket then why are so many Australian miners and food producers seeing their share price crash in the past few days? For example, Sandfire Resources down 4% in the last five days, when before that it was heading mostly upwards (with significant volatility). Are we supposed to believe that a war means no one wants Copper anymore? They have operations in Australia, Montanta USA, Spain and Botswana … is Putin poised to invade any of those places?!?

    Probably all buying gold.

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