Newspoll: Not one single demographic category is now for Yes

19 Responses to Newspoll: Not one single demographic category is now for Yes

1. C.L. says:

   9 October, 2023 at 1:07 am

   Labor’s stocks fall, support for the Indigenous voice to parliament hits new low.

   Support for the Indigenous voice to parliament and executive government has weakened further heading into the final week of the campaign, with just a third of voters now backing the proposed constitutional change amid a critical loss of support among younger voters.

   The Albanese government has also suffered electorally, with Labor’s primary vote slipping to its lowest level since the election and Anthony Albanese’s personal approval rating dipping to a new low as his lead over Liberal leader Peter Dutton narrows to its tightest margin.

   An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows support for the voice falling a further two points in the past fortnight to 34 per cent as Australians prepare to cast their vote this coming weekend.

   Approval for the referendum question is now at the lowest ebb since it was first proposed.

   The no vote has risen two points to 58 per cent, with 8 per cent of voters saying they still didn’t know which way they would vote. With the “don’t know” category removed the split becomes 37/63 in favour of a no vote.

   The Prime Minister yesterday remained optimistic that a large proportion of Australians may still be undecided and swing in favour of the voice on polling day.

   But in a troubling trend for the Yes campaign, support among younger voters has also fallen below 50 per cent with the no vote for the first time now ahead of the yes vote among a key group that the Yes campaign has been heavily relying on to deliver a victory.

   The number of 18 to 34 year-olds saying they intended to vote no rose eight percentage points to 49 per cent. The yes vote declined four points to 46 per cent, while the number of those saying they didn’t know almost doubled from 5 per cent to 9 per cent.

   This represents a decline of almost 10 points among this critical voting group since the start of the official referendum campaign.

   There is now not a single demographic category in which the yes vote outnumbers the no case. Less than a quarter of voters aged over 65 said they would vote yes – 24 per cent – and only slightly over a quarter – 26 per cent – of 50 to 64 year-olds were in favour.

   The only demographic which improved for the yes vote was among the 35 to 49 year-olds where support lifted a point to 37 per cent. However, the no vote still remained stronger at 53 per cent.

   Among the sharpest decline in support was among Labor voters, with those saying they intended to vote yes also falling below 50 per cent for the first time. The no vote rose six points to 42 per cent while the yes vote dropped six points to 48 per cent.

   The latest Newspoll survey of 1225 voters nationally, taken between October 3 and October 6 – a two-week gap since the previous poll – shows a concurrent decline in support for the government and Mr Albanese, with cost-of-living pressures also showing no sign of easing.

   Labor’s primary vote fell a point to 34 per cent – its lowest level since the election result, which delivered it victory on a primary vote of 32.6 per cent. It is now four points down since mid-June.

   Primary vote

   Mr Albanese has also suffered a decline in personal support, with his approval rating dipping back into negative territory for the second time. Satisfaction with his performance dropped two points to 45 per cent – the lowest level recorded for Mr Albanese since becoming prime minister.

   Better PM

   Those dissatisfied with the job he was doing as leader rose two points to 46 per cent, delivering a net negative satisfaction rating of minus one.

   The Coalition’s primary vote was unchanged at 36 per cent which remains consistent with its election result but is five points up on its lowest level recorded in this electoral cycle.

   Two-party preferred

   However, the gap has narrowed in the head-to-head contest between the two rivals, with Mr Albanese’s lead reducing to the tightest margin since the election at 17 points.

   Mr Dutton approval ratings recovered from a record low in the last survey, rising five points to 37 per cent with a two-point fall in those dissatisfied with him to 50 per cent. He remains firmly in negative territory on minus 13.

   ———————-

   Simon Benson in The Australian
2. NFA says:

   9 October, 2023 at 1:26 am

   Lucky their AEC gets to count the votes but even better that Dutton will hold another referendum next year if their AEC don’t find enough ‘yessir’ votes.
3. Jannie says:

   9 October, 2023 at 1:48 am

   Yeah, some late postal votes will sort it out. If not this time, then next time.
4. John says:

   9 October, 2023 at 6:29 am

   AnAl, Professor Langdon and Noel Pearson should escalate their campaign with even greater rabid frenzy.
5. John says:

   9 October, 2023 at 6:31 am

   Don’t worry! The voters will ensure that the dip in primary votes will go to the Greens in revenge.
6. Bazinga says:

   9 October, 2023 at 8:38 am

   “If you don’t know, vote no” appears to have morphed into “if you don’t know, find out, then vote no”.
7. bollux says:

   9 October, 2023 at 8:42 am

   “Not one single demographic category is now for Yes”.
   Not true C.L.
   What about pretend Aboriginals, academics, school teachers, big business CEO’s, assorted grifters on the aboriginal payroll, The Left, CFMEU, The Communist Party of Australia, the Labor Pardy, The alphabet people, film stars, celebrities, and Paul Keating.
8. Entropy says:

   9 October, 2023 at 9:05 am

   The headline of the results of the SMH survey

   Inner Sydney voters strongly favour the Voice. It’s not enough to make NSW a Yes state
9. Christine says:

   9 October, 2023 at 9:48 am

   People have other concerns.
   The sermonising by the well-to-do was bound to be ignored.

   Albanese has been woeful.
10. Buccaneer says:

    9 October, 2023 at 9:56 am

    Inner city voters know the fake virtue trolling of voice advocates is a trojan horse to unlock control of the parliament via a small, easily manipulated, and reliable vote herd. They’re on board with that because they think their team has the whip hand in that transaction. Were they to feel at all insecure that the other team might be able to take control of this arrangement the wailing and aggression would be off the charts.
11. C.L. says:

    9 October, 2023 at 12:02 pm

    Via OldOzzie:

    New large-scale nationwide poll predicts less than 15 per cent of electorates will vote Yes in massive blow to the Voice.

    The Yes campaign is set to win in just 22 of 151 House of Representatives seats according to seat by seat modelling that shows big wins for Yes in the inner city Sydney seats held by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek, but hardly anywhere else.

    The polling – which has been distributed between No campaigners and senior Liberal party officials during the weekend – comes from UK firm Focal Data. It used a technique similar to the one used by The Australian during the 2022 election campaign, which came very close to the seat by seat result at that election.
12. Entropy says:

    9 October, 2023 at 12:09 pm

    The seats that are voting Yes include every seat in the Australian Capital Territory and a number of Labor and Greens seats also voting Yes as well as the Independent seats of North Sydney and Clark in Tasmania.

    The poll finds Tanya Plibersek’s seat of Sydney is voting Yes 70.4 per cent, Anthony Albanese’s Grayndler 64.5 per cent, Melbourne 64 per cent, Canberra 62 per cent and then the following seats between 40 and 50 per cent – Adelaide, Fenner, Brisbane, Macnamara, Reid, Higgins, North Sydney, Clark, Bean, Perth, Kingsford Smith, Griffth, Greenway, Wills, Cooper, Bennelong, Ryan and Chisholm.

    The largescale nationwide poll has gone 61-39 the way of the No case. Picture: News Corp.
    The largescale nationwide poll has gone 61-39 the way of the No case. Picture: News Corp.
    Other Independent seats are projected to vote no by a small margin: Kooyong 50.2 per cent no and Wentworth 50.4 per cent.

    Then there are a range of marginal seats in terms of voting No, polling 53 or under.

    Julian Leeser’s seat of Berowra is 53 per cent No and also between 50 and 53 per cent are Sturt Goldstein, Maribyrnong, Barton, Chifley, Parramatta, Newcastle, Hotham, Moreton, Fraser, Boothby and Hindmarsh.

    The poll shows the closer seats are to CBDs, whether it is in Sydney, Brisbane, Hobart, Melbourne or Perth, there are more people voting Yes.
13. Entropy says:

    9 October, 2023 at 12:11 pm

    In other words, those most removed from disadvantaged indigenous whose only dealings with indigenous are chairs of university faculties and the like.
14. NFA says:

    9 October, 2023 at 12:41 pm

    In among all this concern ‘Voicing’ has anything actually improved for remote communities?
15. NFA says:

    9 October, 2023 at 12:42 pm

    what Entropy says: 9 October, 2023 at 12:11 pm
16. and says:

    9 October, 2023 at 1:43 pm

    From the “Spotlight” program on Ch7 last night:

    Poll of 44,000 TV viewers – 72% NO.
17. dover_beach says:

    9 October, 2023 at 3:38 pm

    It’s been a month’s worth of terrible polls for ‘the Voice’. The calumnies and recriminations are going to be epic.
18. Christine says:

    9 October, 2023 at 4:26 pm

    I can bear the recriminations.
    Already endured the relentless bombardment by the media.
    I’m glad they’re frantic now.
19. Nos_pullum says:

    9 October, 2023 at 4:47 pm

    I’m still waiting for Albo to unleash The Shaq and show us all how to vote.

    He’s leaving it a bit late I think.