And just like that, News Corp – which promoted this homicidal debacle from day one – calls quits.
Meanwhile, David Cameron brings fresh Never Surrender to win a piece of the reconstruction pie.
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Stalemate.
Ukraine and Russia May Never Sign Peace Treaty, Warns Kyiv’s Intelligence Chief (17 Nov)
I doubt that fighting will subside, just go back to the sniping that continued between 2014 and 2022. There’s too much hatred between the two peoples for peace, same as between Israel and the Palis. So it will go on and on until the next flare up.
If Russia plays its cards right it could win that, but the Russian demographic trap is as bad as everywhere, and Putin will probably be dead by then anyway.
On the other hand there’s “win” and then there’s “occupation”. Russia already has enough problems in the occupied bits. Definitely not winning hearts and minds.
Plemty of broken windows … looks like Keynesian stimulus is the real winner here.
Is there anything that can’t be solved by printing money and smashing stuff?
If Russia plays its cards right it could win that, but the Russian demographic trap is as bad as everywhere, and Putin will probably be dead by then anyway.
BoN – you do realise that Putin is a moderate – and has been very careful in not escalating the conflict into a full-blown US/NATO – Russia conflict even though provoked continually.
There’s a very good chance that any replacement for Putin will be a lot more aggressive.
The “occupied bits” that voted to become – and are now – Russian? The only problem Putin has with those “bits” is that the AFU is still too close and is lobbing ordnance into some of the now Russian cities. That problem will be fixed soon enough.
I note there is a magical thinking that the conflict can be frozen. It assumes Russia will negotiate and accept a truce. How many times have Russian leaders stated they no longer consider the west agreement capable?
I certainly don’t blame them after Merkel etc. very publicly admitted they never planned on sticking to previous agreements. Expect Russia to set the conditions, and they’ll be harsh.
If “stalemate” is the narrative off-ramp Ukraine needs to save face, so be it. When your day is done and you wanna run; cope-aine. But Ukraine will never regain Crimea; the eastern provinces are now Russian.
A few other observations: There are no fighting-age men left in Ukraine and the nervousness about elections – and the spike in SBU excesses and swaggering – point to a population that’s fed-up with the slaughterhouse and the graft. There’s the smell of fear in Kiev. Fear of Ukrainians.
Second, “containment” is almost as facile as “stalemate” as a geo-strategic descriptor. It’s a simplified way of saying status quo ante bellum. Russia has no intention of bearing down on Belfast and never did. The entity whose containment – or, better, imprisonment – would be advantageous to sane international relations is the US military-industrial-intelligence complex.
Third: China is indeed watching, as Jack Keane always reminds Andrew Bolt. And it has learned a lot about the Biden/Macron/Squishy/Scholz West – none of it flattering or scary.
One of my sisters knows some Ukrainians, and when someone suggested to them that it would be great if Putin was killed or removed, their attitude was “No! no! if that happens he will probably be replaced with someone much worse!”
If the replacement came tomorrow, then I agree … the average Russian stopping at a park bench for a smoke and a shot of vodka tends to see Putin as a good leader, with a decent track record who got a bit old and soft and has lost his edge. The think of the Wagner guys as the real heros who won it.
However, clearly the NATO plan is now to cool things off in Europe, call it a draw (like Korea) and quietly rebuild forces over the next 10 years, sign another bunch of treaties they have no intention of honouring … and encouraging the Russians to let their guard down. Somehow the Russians always look towards Europe for inspiration, and perhaps a future leader will decide it’s worth making concessions to the EU in return for trade deals, etc.
Yep the same bits that voted to become Ukrainian. Of course the first referendum was not held at the point of a gun like the Russian one. Funny how that works.
LOL. Stop believing Russian propaganda. The interesting thing is that there’ve widespread reports that Russian frontline units aren’t being rotated. That is not a sign of dominance, more one of desperation. And so far they’ve failed to dislodge the bridgehead near Kherson – instead the Ukies have been cautiously probing out from it.
Russian bloggers have been extremely caustic about RGS strategy and tactics. It’s Catch22: when you are short of guys you get forced to throw them into the line with minimal training. Then they die and you need more of them. And around it goes. The strategic answer would be to properly train a combat infantry force, but the losses and the pressures for front coverage are so severe that they don’t seem to be able to extract a significant number of guys for advanced training.
Incidentally Putin gave Rybar a medal this week. Whoever said blogging doesn’t pay off?
At least Cameron and Zelensky have something in common… offshore bank accounts.
Though Zelensky looks like he’s looking at his assassin… lol.
Bruce, the war is over.
Everything happening now is just political and economic mopping-up.
Large numbers of dying Russians would disagree with you CL.
And their mothers and wives.
Some Neo-Cons Slowly Coming To Grips With Reality In Ukraine
by Larry Johnson Nov. 18, 2023 7:00 am
Great piece by Johnson.
Same Larry Johnson on his own blog is perhaps a bit easier to read. TGP has very annoying ads and the comments have a high percentage of total blockheads.
https://sonar21.com/some-neo-cons-slowly-coming-to-grips-with-reality-in-ukraine/
Nasty burn against the USA … and a fair point.
You can understand why people like Johnson, woth a strong personal sense of pride and dignity, feel enraged to see what’s happened to their country. Thing is, powerful people in the USA don’t care … is Victoria Nuland ever, ever going to come home by subway after a night out? I doubt she would even know how to go about buying a subway ticket.
Probably shit in the street won’t make a big difference in terms of global power balance and great empires. I’m sure there’s also bad neighbourhoods in Russia and China too, and wherever you go people are thinking about ways to move out of whatever situation they are in, and move to a better neighbourhood.
The real difference is the industrial base, the tech skills, and how effective the education system is in each nation. These are the areas where the USA has slipped the most … and in every case due to political meddling and central planning which always ultimately fails.
ACT test scores drop to lowest level in 30 years.
Hoft himself is a bit of a loon-ball. I don’t respect his tendency to post atrocity clips (which I don’t watch) on the pretext that it’s important they be seen etc. He’d post a daily page 3 girl with big tits to boost his clicks (and revenue) if he could get away with it.
uBlock is your friend.
CL: you really are just repeating Putin talking points. Why is that? It is simply a fact that Putin owns this and has trampled over Ukraine solely for his own aggrandisement as a new czar.
Provide the reference to Putin’s talking points that you assert C.L. is repeating.
Russian bloggers have been extremely caustic about RGS strategy and tactics.
Sure, but they don’t consider all of Putler’s possible objectives.
If his intention is to kill or maim as many of the Ukraine’s and Russia’s young military men as possible, then Putler and Zelenskyy are both winners.
Look at the history of this war?
What other objective could there be?
Russians never hated Ukrainians. That wasn’t a thing at all. The hatred was coming from some parts of Ukraine. Now it’s all ruined. Thanks to the promoters of “democracy”. Sad.
Still, I think most Russians understand where it’s coming from. Reading Russian telegram channels I don’t see hatred for the former “brotherly people” (bratskiy narod). It is mostly a contempt for being so gullible as to still don’t see how the US state dep and IC have been manipulating them for many years (long before the US organised and sponsored orange revolution).
“still not seeing” rather.
Russian hatred is directed at the correct source of the problem – the US of A aka “Empire of lies”.
NFI: sadly CL censors responses to avoid dissent. He’s a perfect follower for his idols in Putin, Trump and Xi.
Somewhere over the rainbow, Alfie is telling Alice what it could do “If I Only Had a Brain“.